Still bearish on Market

As of now, I am still bearish on Market.

2 main issues at hand here:

1. OPEC/BRIC not cutting production of oil, and allowing oil prices to go down. (Saudi trying to kill the rest of the market or rather, take back its market share, especially Shale oil.)

2. Slowdown in China - We know now that China is cutting some production of Steel, which may be a sign of more production cuts to come. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-13/steel-output-in-china-drops-again-as-more-cuts-seen-on-the-way)

As long as the above mentioned are true, I remain bearish. However, I may go long once one of them is false.

I see Keppel dropping to $4.75 today. I will cover my short at a loss (Was holding to this baby for some time already)

China might recover on Wednesday since the consensus is at 50.5 compared to previous of 50.2. (Caixin China Services PMI)

Wrong wrong again

I am now totally bearish on the market. Keppel, Barclays has been cutting jobs but still, I do not see blood on the streets. (Sources below)

I am getting married in the middle of this year, and thus will not have much ammo to deploy to average down all my shares, but I will start to do it, probably after Chinese New Year.

Keppel axes over 6000 om workers

Barclays axe set to fall on 1000 more jobs in investment bank

I think there is still shorting opportunities in O & G counters, and as such Keppel remains my first choice to short. 

Temasek said to discuss potential sale of keppel stakes in m1

I can understand that selling stake in M1, but I don't really understand why Temasek is asking Keppel to consider selling rights even though they are doing ok now, but if thats the case, it represents dilution to existing shareholders and so Keppel will fall, which represents a shorting opportunity.

Note: I am vested in Keppel at an average price of $9.19. 

Wrong again?

Seems like I was right in the immediate term that oil was going up. However, due to the language that Fed was using, the december rate hike is back on, which caused a drop in the market.

SK3 was up to 0.35 briefly before going back down. Keppel was doing fine, and went up to $7.30 before going down to $7.18. (Oil went up by 6+%, but Fed's tone indicate hawkish, which is why all stocks got shot down) The volume for the stock is relatively thin, and I guess I screwed up this part.

I should have factored this in, before making a trade:

1. Ensure volume is near or above average voloume (50).
2. I should be giving more credibility to Fed, for their words are truly now gold. Especially when the market is depending on cheap money like druggies depending on drugs.

Regarding Trade idea yesterday

It seems that I was wrong.

I feel like, I didn't take into account a few things:

1. There is EIA crude oil data today. (You can see the impact of this data. Evidently, all the oil-related stocks just went up due to lesser inventories. Oil price went up by $1.48, increasing by 3%. GTE went up by $0.19, 8.52%, ExxonMobile went up by 1.71%, Shell up by 2.52% etc, etc.)
2. Market has accounted for FOMC decision making by staying up. Seems like they have already factored in Fed staying its decision until another opportune time to raise.
3. Also, I didn't put a stop loss for yesterday's prediction, but is 1 resistance level above always.

Trade ideas 28th October 2015

KrisEnergy (SK3)

SK3 is an oil and gas exploration company generally based in Asia. The recent bullish data from EIA resulted in bullish price action for oil, and should help it tomorrow.

It seems like yesterday SK3 was a long-legged doji which indicates equal strength between buying and selling. Today ended with a bullish hammer. Buy at open $0.345 - $0.35 and close at $0.37/0.38. Stop loss would be $0.325. MACD shows that it is coming down, so that is 1 cause for concern here, but take note it is a lagging indicator.

Trade Ideas 27th Oct 2015

With the FOMC Int rate meeting looming, uncertainty has crept back into the markets. Market do not like uncertainty and we see that the market has been going down abit. Here we have Keppel breaking down the $7.16 support level and going towards the $7.01 level. Also, MACD crossover, and RSI going below the 50% line. (See below)

Conclusion: Short and cover back same day. (FOMC might not raise IR, which will be bullish to the market.)

Cerebrations

This blog will be to document down what I feel and think of the market, trade ideas that I may have.

From tomorrow onwards, I should have some pictures up and running.